The Dawn of a New Cold War?

In this, the month of the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, it is perhaps prudent to look at the current geo-political crisis in Ukraine and ask if we are drifting towards the start of a new Cold War. Recent events at the G20 summit in Brisbane have brought the tensions sharply into focus, forgetting for a moment the shared experience of koala cuddling. Intransigent positions taken on all sides, tough rhetoric and no discernible nod towards compromise have increased the chances that a full blown diplomatic collapse between Russia and the West will evolve and lead to a return of the mistrust and suspicion of the 1950's and 60's. For Brisbane 2014 can we read Yalta and Potsdam 1945?

Brisbane 2014?

Potsdam 1945?

Whilst there is little doubt that the current frostiness in relations have echoes of the post war period, the extremes of those particular times are missing today, certainly from a European angle. In 1945 the continent lay exhausted from 6 years of war and the latent hostility between political ideologies created an environment that sparked the Cold War. Relatively speaking, Europe today is a more settled place, there is no fear of Communism spreading across the globe and the oft quoted 'nuclear shadow' does not take centre stage in political matters.  However, the escalation in direct armed conflict has worsened this crisis rapidly and pushed both sides to an intransigent position. The West's economic sanctions are 'biting plenty good' according to President Obama and yet commentators this weekend indicated that Putin and Russia were playing the long game and waiting for the cracks to appear in his opponents' stance, rather like West Berlin post 1945 one might argue. Even if Russian dominance was a key motive for Putin's stance on Ukraine the absence of mass numbers of Russian troops means that easy parallels with the Soviet domination of post war Eastern and Central Europe are probably best avoided, but if we replace the 'Red Army' with control of oil and gas supplies then perhaps the bargaining chips are not too dissimilar after all.

A detailed overview of the original situation can be found here by Robert Legvold, Professor in Political Science at Columbia University. In the meantime we wait to see if the blunt assessments of the situation expounded by Obama, Cameron and Merkel this weekend will become the 'Iron Curtain' moment of our times and confirms a retreat to a new Cold War, one which could leave Russia dangerously isolated 25 years to the month that the Communist experiment started to unravel.

S Shergold